QOF News

Smoking indicators

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 21:11:00 +0000

The business rules for the QOF are rather murky place and I am grateful to a couple of people who have pointed out some odd things happening in the smoking cessation areas

Just as a reminder smoking cessation advice now applies to all patients in the practice who are over 15 years old and smoke. There is a difference between those with chronic disease and those without that those with chronic disease should have the advice annually (well, within 15 months of the end of the QOF year) and those without within two years (27 months). So for this year the smoking cessation advice requirements applied since January 2011, or 14 months before the business rules actually came out.

Despite fairly minimal change to the wording the actual smoking cessation indicator has changed. Two codes are now needed to pass this indicator. One code from each of the two following groups. The fist group is basically the same codes as before. The patient should receive advice or be referred or pointed to self referral to a smoking cessation clinic.

8CAL	Smoking Cessation Advice
8HTK	Referral to stop smoking clinic
8HkQ	Referral to NHS stop smoking service
8H7i	Referral to smoking cessation advisor
8IAj	Smoking cessation advice declined
8IEK	A declined code
9N2K	Seen by smoking cessation advisor
13p50	Practice based smoking cessation programme start date
9Ndf	Consent given for follow up by smoking cessation team
9Ndg	Declined consent for follow up by smoking cessation team

This is all pretty sensible. Most of the evidence points to a good smoking cessation clinic improving quit rates. However there is now a second part that requires a prescription to be issued. Note in both these areas there is a declined code. I use EMIS PCS at work and the declined codes are not yet available on the system. That is 17 months after they could first require to be entered.

745H	Smoking cessation therapy (and all its subtypes)
8B3f	Nicotine replacement therapy provided free
8B2b	Nicotine replacement therapy
8B3Y	Over the counter nicotine replacement therapy
8IEM	A declined code
Rx	Smoking cessation product prescription

Quite how this helps anything is beyond me. We have a local smoking cessation clinic that does not (or nor does it need to) inform me every time they advice someone to get some patches at the chemist. Logically the most sensible thing for me to do would be to throw patches at patients like confetti. This is likely expensive for my PCT/CCG and, in the curse of QOF, it seems that nicotine therapy may actually reduce quit rates.

Even the evidence quoted in the official guidelines is confused and muddled.

It would be nice if these retrospective changes were corrected in the next ruleset although past experience suggests that this is policy and not error and change is unlikely.

QOF indicators for 2013-14

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 21:25:00 +0000

NICE is currently consulting on the potential new QOF indicators for 2013-14. These are the indicators that could be put forward to the negotiators in the summer for consideration of the following year's contract. There is certainly no guarantee that they would go forward. This year rather fewer than half of the suggestions in the menu actually made it into practice.

As this is a consultation then the more responses the better. My response to the QOF consultation is on the web in the interests of openness. In generally the aims seem laudable although there are some significant practical problems that may arise with the implementation of these indicators. Some clearly need more work but your view may differ and I would encourage you to put them forwards.

Access Databases to download

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 22:15:00 +0000

The access databases are now available on the download page. These are actually version two. If you have downloaded before Saturday night (21st January) there were some errors in the indicator descriptions and some practice codes - basically a lack of 'N's due to over vigorous removal of null values.

You can download this years data or the data for all QOF years. The latter is a very large download and it makes Access run like an asthmatic sloth but that could all be the way I have set it up. I am no Access guru.

You may also have noticed the new timelines on the site. You can see how achievement for an indicator has changed over time. This is something that would not have been possible on the old site - the new database structure makes it much easier.

2011 Data online - and the new site

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 18:26:00 +0000

I am delighted to be able to say that the 2011 data is on the site, and the new version of the site is on line. This currently mirrors of the function of the old site with more detail at the SHA, country and UK level.

There is more functionality to come which is made easier by an entirely new data model in the background. The database will be able to cope with things such as comparisons between years.

There is also a new look which is hopefully easier to find your way around. Search is on pretty much every page. Please do let me know how you find it. Everything can change and this is rather more simple in the new site. I have used Django to build the site which has a very simple template system. I would update the look to this blog but Blogger templates are such horrible things that I really can't figure out at all.

The downloads should be available soon. I need to tidy the database a little first.

Update - and coming soon!

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 21:54:00 +0000

I have not written here for quite a while, at least partly due to there being little going on until the past couple of weeks. I have been writing for the GP Business magazine though in that time.

The data for all four countries has now been released and I am getting it onto the database currently. I am also giving the site a makeover from top to bottom which will increase what is possible and make the whole thing more maintainable. It will also have a new look, have less clutter and have graphs that work where there is no flash (ipods,pads and phones mainly)

This is a pretty big change so I will have to take the site down for 24 hours or so in the next week before it reappears with all the data. New features can be added after that.

Hope to see you there soon!

Blood pressure monitoring

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 08:51:00 +0000

Lots of stuff on the news today about the NICE guidance that all new patients should have an ambulatory blood pressure measurement. Savings of about ten million pounds in five years are promised. But what is the cost?

We can use the QOF data to work this out. As the PP1 indicator applies to all newly diagnosed hypertensives then the denominator is a good indicator of how many have been diagnosed in the previous year. (Acutally it underestimates buy up to 8% but I will let that pass for just now.) The total of the PP1 denominator over the UK in 2009/10 is 278,012

We can buy an ambulatory blood pressure machine. If we pick a decent supplier - I promise I am not on commission here - the cheapest today is £1350 including VAT.

As they go on one day and come off the next these could be used four times a week in most practices - 208 times a year.

Lets do a little bit of maths - 278012 patients per year divided by 208 slots (lets assume perfect useage) needs 1337 machines. At total cost of £1,804,404.

Of course if use is less than perfect - and to operate at all there will have to be some free slots - then the cost will be more. Possibly two to three times as much. This is a big upfront capital cost. Recurring costs will need to be added on as well as replacement costs. I would imagine a machine is going to start to look pretty shabby after 208 uses!

Incentives work

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 09:42:00 +0000

The role of the press office at a major journal is to try to get the journal into the mainstream press. They can tend to be a little, well, excitable.

So it was in last weeks BMJ that a paper was published on the early years of the QOF. Effect of financial incentives on incentivised and non-incentivised clinical activities: longitudinal analysis of data from the UK Quality and Outcomes Framework is actually quite an interesting paper on the effect of incentivised and non incentivised indicators. The not terribly startling conclusion was that attaching a third of practice income to a set of indicators seems to have concentrated the minds of GPs and influenced practice, or at least the coding of that practice. Incentives work.

The graph above is taken from the paper. You can clearly see the "hump" where QOF starts. The setting up of sytems and templates in a concentrated way has pushed up achievement and this is maintained (or "plateaued" as they say in the paper).

However most of the press attention went onto the green line. Notice how the green line plummets off the bottom of the graph indicating inadequate care? Nope, neither do I. It is still going up. It is not going up quite as fast as before, and that is the point that the paper makes.

It is not a scandalous or surprising conclusion. Paying a third of income and a greater share of profits for certain indicators is bound to put these as top priorities. It is to the credit of general practice that the standards for the lower prority areas have not simply been maintained but continuously improved.

To be startled by the result that incentive payments incentivise some things over others is to question what you thought QOF was actually for.

Read codes for new indicators

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sat, 14 May 2011 14:32:00 +0000

With impressive speed version 19 of the business rules has been released. This is likely because rules are developed alongside the indicators at the NICE committee stage. The sign off date for this set of rules is given as December last year. This certainly makes things easier for practices and, perhaps because of the extra time, the rules seem pretty well put together and well annotated.

So what is new this time? It is of little surprise that it is in mental health where the biggest changes are. Most of the other changes to indicators were fairly simple. Where there are lots of new indicators here there are also lots of codes.

There is, however, some chance of patients getting off the mental health register for the first time. Strangely this is not through the 212T resolved code but through remission codes for individual diagnoses. These are spread around read codes and all state remission rather than resolved. The implication that once you have mental illness it is never really gone remains. Use of these codes does not reduce disease prevalence for a practice.

First up is recording of alcohol consumption. In general codes starting 136 count but there are some odd exceptions to this. Code 136 on its own with a quantity would be fine. Anything which says unknown does not count. There is a list of "bad" codes and some good equivalents below.

Codes not counted	Codes which are counted
136W Alcohol misuse	136T Harmful alcohol use
136M Current non drinker	1361 Teetotaler
1369 Suspected alcohol abuse - denied	136S Hazardous alcohol use
136Y Drinks in morning to get rid of hangover
136b Feels should cut down on drinking	136K Alcohol intake above recommended sensible limits

The guidance states that lipids test must be for a TC:HDL ratio - this is certainly not the routine in my area. Even worse the only code currently allowed is 44PG HDL:TC ratio. This is the inverse of what the guidance asks for. Our lab certainly reports 44PF which would be the correct code here. This is clearly silly and I would hope that this would be corrected in the next version.

The codes for other areas of mental health are fairly routine. Glucose testing is not required for patients who have a diagnosis of diabetes although the test is still counted if they are diagnosed during the year. The sample can be fasting or random.

Another complex area is advice to women who are having advice about epilepsy and fertility. This applies to women who are between ages 18 and 55 inclusive at the end of the year. They require separate codes for contraception 6110, pre-conceptual 67IJ0 and pregnancy 67AF counselling. All three codes or their exception codes must be entered every year. Useful information available from Epilepsy Action including a pdf leaflet (top right corner). Beware the "printer friendly" is a tree unfriendly 61 pages long!

Diabetes foot risk assessment is fairly straightforward using codes 2G5E-L. The rules are made a little more complex as they exclude bilateral amputees but this should not cause too much concern to practices. Just remember that they still need sensation testing (29B4-9 or 29H4-B) as well.

CHD 13 is the indicator that says new angina patients should be referred for specialist assessment. Excercise testing is not longer required, or counted. Referral codes 8H44, 8H4R, 8HTJ and 8HVJ count. Unfortunately NICE says that barn door angina does not need specialist assessment so exceptions will apply. There is no specific exception code so they would need 9h01 (excepted from CHD indicator, patient unsuitable) to be used. This is less than satisfactory. I would hope this would be sorted on the next release or they will requiring excepting from the whole of the CHD section every year.

Effectively the referral needs to be within 3 months before or after the diagnosis although within the same QOF year following diagnosis is also fine.

That is about the most I can spot at the moment. Most of the other indicators have changed in fairly minor or predictable ways. It is to be hoped that the obvious errors will be corrected soon, indeed it may be that version 19 is never actually implemented if version 20 comes out soon. The real message at the moment is to get cracking on the mental health checks and the epilepsy advice.

(Apologies if you have seen this post up and down over the last couple of days. Blogger crashed in a fairly major way and they had to get this from backup.)

Things to do now

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sat, 26 Mar 2011 20:45:00 +0000

GP Business magazine asked me to write a couple of articles which they have now put up on their website. The first gives some hints on what to do now to maximise your QOF achievment this year. It is important not just to get the points but to maximise prevalence. Adding one patient with diabetes can add over £50. Much more from the link above.

The second is a first guide to the QOF changes for this year. There are quite a lot of smaller changes and many are worth getting on with now.

Some of my points are missing

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 18:35:00 +0000

Yesterday the changes to the GMS contract for the year from the first of April came out. there are quite a few of them and the full details are on the BMA contract page. Of course I turned to the QOF changes first of all. You can read the full QOF changes here.

You can almost feel the negotiations behind them. Raising the upper threshold on three indicators from 70% to 71% seems likely the result of a very long and banal meeting. Other areas have other minor differences and some, such as mental health see big changes. There is also a lot of "to be announced" around prescribing and referral audits.

I am trying to write and article for a trade magazine about the changes but I have hit a problem. The numbers just don't add up.

Page one goes pretty much as billed with 92.5 points being removed. Page two then gets a little odd. CHD11 (ACEi after MI)become CHD14 with 3 extra points. DM9 (foot pulses) gains a point but also does most of what DM 10 currently doing. Is this duplicated or is there another three points lost here? So at the end of page two we have lost 92.5 or possibly 95.5 points and gained 4.

Page three - MH 9 gains four points in its split up but depression loses 20. So total 8 gained and 112.5 (or 115.5) down.

Page four has lots of new indicators so gains 40. Now 48 up.

Page five gains 48.5 but loses another 4. Final total 96.5 gained with at least 116.5 lost. 20 points have gone adrift somewhere. Even worse there may be another 3 if they don't want to pay twice for foot checks. And actually I wonder whether they will really want to have two indicators for aspirin and beta blockers in CHD which would lose another 14.

So where are my 20 points?

Updated 14/3/11 They have been found and it seems to have been the slip of a keyboard. QP9-11 which relate to reviewing emergency admissions should have 47.5 rather than 27.5 points. That is a lot of points, nearly 5% of QOF - more than all of asthma.

QOF error in your favour - receive £???

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 21:56:00 +0000

This statement has appeared on the Primary Care Contracting site

An error has been identified within the QMAS system which calculates payments to GP contractors under QOF and which has resulted in GP practices being underpaid for achievement under the QOF additional services indicators since 2004/05. The Department of Health will provide PCTs with resources to make good these underpayments.

... and that is all we have. There is no detail of what the error is. The additional service domain contains Child Health Surveillance, Cervical Cytology and Contraception/Sexual Health. There is a prevalence adjustment here and I would guess that that is where the problem is.

It is worth noting that this seems to have purely been an underpayment and some practices could be due six years of back pay.

QMAS is used to calculate the QOF in England and Scotland although PCC only deals with England as far as I know.

A notice on QMAS says the system will be off for a couple of days from the 11th February. I have no idea if this is connected.

Does QOF work?

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 21:45:00 +0000

There is quite a bit of publicity today for a paper in the BMJ asking whether hypertension targets have any effect on outcomes. Neither blood pressure or cardiovascular morbidity seem to have been affected.

It was with a sense of dread that found the paper. QOF has had more than its fair share of thinly disguised rants appearing as research. I was however very pleasantly surprised to find a well constructed piece of research with tightly defined methods and considerably clarity of thought. Maybe it takes researchers in the USA (Harvard to be exact) to look at these things objectively.

There is considerably debate about performance related pay and very variable evidence about how effective it is. There has been some research in the USA where schemes tend to make up a much smaller proportion of practice income than in the NHS.

It is of course disappointing although not particularly surprising to see a lack of observable effect. QOF is not, of course, a controlled intervention and it is possible to argue that we will never know what would have happened without it but this is pretty weak.

Now for the political bit. The cash for the QOF came, to a large extent, from a transfer from the old capitation payments. So the pay which previously went to practices and was used for treatment of hypertension was paid, in a different way, to practice for the same treatment of hypertension.

So little change but I am strangely cheerful that it has been demonstrated in such a high quality piece of research. More please.

Bringing QRISK to Facebook

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sun, 12 Dec 2010 09:00:00 +0000

This has nothing to do with QOF. Earlier this year the the good people at QResearch put the QRisk2 formula onto the internet with an open licence. This is freely available to download and use. This is quite something. There have always been problems with trying to apply JBS formulae as, for most people, the data to input is not there. Qrisk2 is based in large part on information that is easily available and the QResearch group provide formula that can estimate some of the other data.

I have put the formula onto Facebook with a fairly simple form. There is a limit to how simple it can be but hopefully it is at least usable.

The results are presented again as simply as seems reasonable. One of the things that can be done with the formula is some "what if" calculations. We can see the effects of stopping smoking or losing weight. There is even data drawn from NHS Choices which gives the closest NHS Smoking Cessation Clinics if you are in England, although this is not currently available due to a bug at NHS Choices.

The app is at http://apps.facebook.com/cvdrisk . Feel free to have a play around. You can change your data as often as you wish and see the effects. All your data is deleted when (or hopefully if) you remove the app from your Facebook account. Facebook will post that you are using the app but none of your data is posted back to Facebook unless you specifically type it in. You can post reviews or questions on the Facebook profile page.

Ooops

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 12:00:00 +0000

Many thanks to the reader who pointed out that, in England, I had transposed the two depression prevalence figures. I have now corrected this on the site. If you have downloaded the data there is now an updated version on the download page.

If you don't fancy downloading it all again you can switch in Access with some queries. I have not worked how to export these. If you are using MySQL the code is

update `achievement` set area='' WHERE `practiceid`regexp '^[ABCDEFGHIJKMLMNOPQRSTUVXYZ][0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9]$' and area ='DEP Prev 1';

update `achievement` set area='Dep Prev 1' WHERE `practiceid`regexp '^[ABCDEFGHIJKMLMNOPQRSTUVXYZ][0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9]$' and area ='DEP Prev 2';

update `achievement` set area='Dep Prev 2' WHERE area ='';

update `pcoach` set area='' WHERE `pco`regexp '5[A-Z][A-Z]' and area ='DEP Prev 1';

update `pcoach` set area='DEP PREV 1' WHERE `pco`regexp '5[A-Z][A-Z]' and area ='DEP Prev 2';

update `pcoach` set area='DEP PREV 2' WHERE area ='';

I had also missed the reconfiguration of the PCT in Hertfordshire which is now corrected in the downloads also (there is not a simple patch for that).

Sorry!

CPD+ on QOF Database

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 21:00:00 +0000

I tend to have a few ideas for projects floating around at a time, most of which come to nothing. One of these was an improved method for saving all of the stuff that I read for appraisal. At the time all that was out there was the official Appraisal Toolkit that was too horrible to use. Thankfully this is, if not quite dead, certainly having the curtains pulled around it.

I never actually managed more than about 20 lines of code as a proof of concept on this one but am very excited to find that those good folks at Healthcarerepublic have actually put finger to keyboard and written something very much along the same lines with their CPD+ system. It is also free, which is nice.

It is pretty basic at the moment but crucially it does allow one click to enter data into the log. There are instructions on the CPD + site but to make things even easier you can click on the CPD+ logo after every blog post at at the bottom of every table on the site. There is also a button at the bottom of each blog posting which is a stupidly complex thing to actually get into a Blogger template. Feel free to use the code yourselves.

I hope you find this useful.

2010 QOF data now online

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 13:10:00 +0000

I am delighted to be able to say that the data for 2010 is now available on the site. This is a little later than usual this year. This is a little due to a later publication of the data by the Information Centre and rather more due to my hard drive crashing. I still had the data but getting the system set up around it took a bit of time. I talk a little about that process on E-Health-Insider.

There is still a bit of work to do and I will get the database download going in the next few days.

More business rules strangeness - PP1

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sat, 18 Sep 2010 20:25:00 +0000

My thanks to Dr David Fitzsimons who has pointed out that it is not only depression that has suffered a ruleset that differs from the guidance. PP1 - the assessment of CVD risk in patients newly diagnosed with high blood pressure - features an almost identical change. Whilst the guidance suggests only the patients diagnosed in the past year should be counted the business rules carry forward all of the unassessed patients from the previous year. There is not a lot that a practice can do to avoid this, unless of course their hypertension has resolve (read code 212K ) in the meantime.

Depression is not what it seems

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 18:31:00 +0000

This week have been looking at the QOF progress in my own practice and I noticed that the depression figures seemed a little odd. The number of patients needing a second depression assessment (Dep 3) was rather larger than the number of patients needing the first assessement (Dep 2). According to the guidance the former should be a subset of the latter.

Just a reminder of what the indicator says

DEP 3: In those patients with a new diagnosis of depression and assessment of severity recorded between the preceding 1 April to 31 March, the percentage of patients who have had a further assessment of severity 5 – 12 weeks (inclusive) after the initial recording of the assessment of severity. Both assessments should be completed using an assessment tool validated for use in primary care.

Indeed the guidance goes on to say:-

New diagnoses are those which have been made between the preceding 1 April to 31 March.

Clear? There is a slightly odd consequence to this. FIt is difficult to count the need for assessment towards the end of the year. With a first assessment in January the second could be due after all of the data is sent to QMAS. This would tend to work in a practice's favour.

This was not what I actually saw on my practice figures. I looked at the latest version of the business rules (warning - highly geeky) and it seemed all was not well. These are the rules that govern the data that is sent to QMAS for payment and the data that ultimately appears on the QOF Database web site. This year's rule was looking way back past 1st April - back to the start of December 2009 looking for diagnoses.

I got in touch with the NHS Information Centre who are the latest organisation to be in charge of the business rules. It turns out that there is no mistake. The rules were set, in consultation with NHS Employers, to try to fix the issue described earlier. In the process the rules now contradict the wording of the indicator and the guidance.

So what do the rules now say? The "yes" and "no" groups have split slightly so it is worth specifying the numerator and denominator groups separately.

Numerator: Patients who have had a second assessment from the previous 1st April to 31st March. The second assessment must be between 5 and 12 weeks after the first and the first, in turn must be within four weeks after the diagnostic code.

Now the denominator :-

Denominator: Patients in the numerator (i.e. Yes)
and also patients for whom the date of 12 weeks following their first assessment is within the previous 1st April -31 March and who have not had that second assessment (i.e. No)

Those who you failed to get at the end of one year are carried over to the next. The successes are counted in the same year.

What does irk me is not the fact that this was changed - indicators are changed and improved over time - but that this alteration from the original meaning has never been announced anywhere other than the business rules. The description of the indicator, although clearly now misleading, has not been altered. Similarly the guidance remains inaccurate. The business rules are hardly the first port of call for a busy GP.

What's On the Menu

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 18:30:00 +0000

NICE has published its menu of potential indicators. These indicators will then go to the negotiators for the decision of what goes into the QOF for 2011-12.

There is not a lot of "wow" here. There majority of changes reflect a tidying up of the current indicators with some made more explicit. There are no big ideas or even a unifying style to the indicators. Let's see what is ahead.

NM07: The percentage of patients with a history of myocardial infarction from 1 April 2011 currently treated with an ACE inhibitor (or ARB if ACE intolerant), aspirin or an alternative anti-platelet therapy, beta-blocker and statin (unless a contraindication or side effects are recorded)

A big wrap up here. CHD 9, 10 and 11 are combined with a requirement for a statin, regardless of cholesterol level. In fact CHD 7, the requirement to test cholesterol is also scheduled to go - the outcome measure remains. Actually this is just an assumption as the actual notes only suggest the replacement of CHD 11, but they must mean 9 and 10 as well, surely?

Personally I don't like these big indicators - they end up with horribly complex business rules, particularly when exception reporting comes in to play. Other than being awkward there is not much new here.

NM09: The percentage of patients with a new diagnosis of dementia from 1 April 2011 to have FBC, calcium, glucose, renal and liver function, thyroid function tests, serum vitamin B12 and folate levels recorded 6 months before or after entering on to the register

My least favourite form of indicator I'm afraid. Miss out in the first six months of diagnosis and you are stuck with that for ages. Depending where they put the threshold a slow start could affect results for years to come. Similarly success will result in several years payments. Much more sensible would be a new diagnosis within the year studied.

NM12: The percentage of patients with diabetes with a record of testing of foot sensation using a 10 g monofilament or vibration (using biothesiometer or calibrated tuning fork), within the preceding 15 months

A tidy up of the wording of DM 10. Nothing new.

NM13: The percentage of patients with diabetes with a record of a foot examination and risk classification: 1) low risk (normal sensation, palpable pulses), 2) increased risk (neuropathy or absent pulses), 3) high risk (neuropathy or absent pulses plus deformity or skin changes or previous ulcer) or 4) ulcerated foot within the preceding 15 months

DM 9 tidied with the risk classification added. Minor changes only.

NM15: The percentage of patients with schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder and other psychoses who have a record of alcohol consumption in the preceding 15 months

I suspect that the wording here is misleading and they are not going to insist on the mentally ill having a couple of beers. They seem actually mean a record of the amount of alcohol consumed. This is the start of an extensive mental health section.

NM16: The percentage of patients with schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder and other psychoses who have a record of BMI in the preceding 15 months

There is little doubt that modern antipsychotics make you put on weight; indeed AstraZenica have just paid out on this. This is probably a large part of their potential to increase the risk of diabetes. I'm sure the guidance will explain what to do with the overweight in this group.

NM17: The percentage of patients with schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder and other psychoses who have a record of blood pressure in the preceding 15 months

Currently MH9 is a general annual MOT for those on these registers. This includes a physical review. Most GPs do a blood pressure as part of this. This group of indicators replaceme MH9. Attentive readers may be wondering why NM07 combined various indicators and MH4 is being unbundled and whether there is any guiding strategy here. I know I am.

NM18: The percentage of patients aged 40 and over with schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder and other psychoses who have a record of total cholesterol: hdl ratio in the preceding 15 months

I expect some changes to this one in negotiations most likely to the use of total cholesterol rather than the ratio. Certainly our local lab advise HDL measurement sparingly and only once per person. Currently we have only recently agreed for the lab to do HDL measurement when the total cholesterol is low for QOF purposes in new hypertensives. Expect objections from chemical pathologists. This would be a closer monitoring of cholesterol, and particularly HDL than for patients with heart disease, strokes or diabetes. The associated documents don't comment on this.

NM19: The percentage of patients aged 40 and over with schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder and other psychoses who have a record of blood glucose level or HbA1c in the preceding 15 months

More checks on the mental health register. Worth doing for patients on antipsychotics but for patients with bipolar the evidence base is less clear.

NM20: The percentage of women aged 25-64 (in Scotland from 21 to 60) with schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder and other psychoses who have a record of cervical screening within the last 5 years

NICE says they don't like double counting but these patients will also count for the main cervical screening indicators. There could be some quite small numbers here. The average number of patients on the mental health register is just over 48. If we assume roughly half are female and some of those are outside the age range then this indicator will apply to less than 20 patients per typical practice. Likely a lot fewer in some practices.

Percentage of patients on the Learning Disability register with Down's Syndrome aged 18 and over who have a record of blood TSH in the previous 15 months (excluding those who are on the thyroid disease register)

I certainly don't want to put down the importance of thyroid function to patients with Down's but I am left wondering how big the problem is at the population level. The economic analysis (which is fairly dire) suggests one in 1000 live births. Down's can be associated with heart problems and other issues which increase childhood mortality and even after that life expectancy, whilst rising, is still reduced. So lets say two thirds are over 18. That would be fewer than four patients in a typical practice and maybe one or even none at all for a small practice. Small numbers make bad indicators and is this really the best use of an indicator?

The percentage of patients with a new diagnosis of dementia from 1 April 2011 to have FBC, calcium, glucose, renal and liver function, thyroid function tests, serum vitamin B12 and folate levels recorded 6 months before or after entering on to the register.

Simple cheap tests. It is worth mentioning small numbers again. It would be worthwhile practices checking in January whether they have diagnosed someone with dementia in the previous year to get this indicator, if implented. If they have not then they would need to hunt someone out to get the points (tongue slightly in cheek, but only slightly).

The percentage of women with epilepsy under the age of 50 who are taking antiepileptic drugs who have a record of information and counselling about contraception, conception and pregnancy in the previous 15 months

Probably small number here again. Quite how otherwise intelligent women will feel about being told the same thing annually will be seen. There is no lower age limit stated here but the lower limit for the epilsepy register is 18, which is probably too late to start. In reality this will likely become part of the annual review.

And now some more brief points

The lowest level of HbA1c target for diabetes has been increased from 7% to 7.5% although these are no expressed in mmol/mol.
The depression assessment indicator changes wording from "the outset of treatment" to "the time of diagnosis". In fact it always was the latter in the business rule. No real change.
The second assessment moves from 5-12 weeks later to 4-12 weeks later. Probably a little easier
For patients on lithium the creatinine and TSH must now be measured after the first of July rather than in the previous 15 months.
For these patients the lithium must now be in the correct range after the First of December rather than July. All blood tests are still only required once a year though, just in more limited months. Unlikely to have the desired effects.
Risk assessment for new hypertensives has the wording brought up to date with the current practice of only looking at those 30-74. This has been in the business rules for a while.
CHD 2 is to have the date updated to next April and the emphisis changed from excercise tolerance testing to clinical assessment.

The 5% rule

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 20:00:00 +0000

The square root formula for adjusting prevalences finished a year ago but we are still left with the 5% cut off for the year just gone. This was less well known than the square root formula but its effects could be rather larger. It seems to have become more of an issue for many practices recently - perhaps we are all looking at our budgets just that little bit more closely.

The basic rule is this. You find the practice with the highest prevalence for any given condition and then calculate 5% of that prevalence. Any practices below that 5% value have their prevalence moved up to that level. Simple? No, not really.

The problem is that there are a small number of practices out there that are quite exceptional in their prevalence. You can see the spread of prevalences in the boxplot below (2008-9 data). For those unfamiliar with a boxplot the middle 50% of practices are within the box. The whiskers spread out from this upto 1.5 times the size of the box. The really outlying practices are plotted separately.

As you can see there are high outliers in every area, some more than others. The 5% rule really starts to kick in when the highest outlier is more than 20 times the mean. When this happens more than half of the practices will be bunched together at the 5% level. Prevalence adjustsment can simply stop. Last year, for instance, only three practices in England had a dementia prevalence more than 5% of the maximum. This meaned every other practice received the same prevalence factor.

To illustrate this effect the results for one of these extreme practices below. I am not giving their name as who they are is not really the point. They provide services to a group of patients with significant needs and there is no reason at all to doubt their figures.

Under the current rules this one practice can significantly change the QOF payments to thousands of others. But how many are affected? Well we can use the database to see.

As you can see it is not only in dementia that the 5% rule affects the vast majority of the 8229 practices in England. Learning disabilities, stroke and mental health area all hugely affected and over half of practices are affected in the area of CKD. As a side note you may notice that learning disabilities, heart failure and epilepsy all have the same maximum. This is all down to a single, and highly unusual practice, although this time down to very small numbers of patients. The same practice is also responsible for the highest stroke prevalence. Another "special" practice has the highest rate of mental health problems, although fewer than 100 patient overall.

There is no blame to attach to these practices. They are providing services to often very difficult populations and there is no doubt that they are recording accurately. The problem is with the operation of the rule, now thankfully in its final year. Expect big changes in these areas next year.

Removing Indicators

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sun, 16 May 2010 14:24:00 +0000

There have been a couple of new pieces of research in the last week or so relating to the QOF. I am trying to track down a copy of the this month's BJGP but fortunately there is free access to research in the BMJ and the paper The impact of removing financial incentives from clinical quality indicators. Lester et al.

The paper looks at the removal of incentive payments in California and, at the risk of spoiling the end for you, finds that there is a decrease in achievement when the incentives are withdrawn. In fact this decline is continuous over the years so things get worse. Comparisons are drawn with the UK and QOF although there are differences. In the US the payments rarely affect the clinicians directly but rather their employer. There were other programmes associated with the incentive payments that could have made a difference. Things not mentioned in the paper are that the incentives tend to be higher in the UK as a proportion of funding. Additionally most of the targets incentivised were fairly uncontroversial (cervical screening, diabetes control) whilst there is much more scepticism amongst clinicians about some of the QOF targets.

In general though the paper is a pretty easy read everyone except possibly for the NICE QOF advisory committee. Of course we won't really know what happens in the UK until it actually happens and has a chance to work through the system. As the earliest indicators will be removed is the 2011/12 year we won't really know until after the Olympics. Until then this is our best clue.

NICE New Indicators Consultation

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 17:00:00 +0000

NICE has a current consultation about possible new QOF indicators. It is open until the 11th of April (a week after Easter) and is certainly worth a look.

I won't go through the whole thing here, if you are interested you can read my submission. I will admit I am a little disappointed in the general scope of the indicators. Some of the current indicators are joined together and some are split apart. There is little feeling of an overall strategy or direction and even less of how indicators fit into the whole QOF. There is not really enough information to give a proper response. They are knee to know about potential unintended consequences but these tend to appear at the business rule level and there are not even draft versions of these. The document reads more as a list of intentions than indicators ready to be used. They don't even included suggestions of point scores which should be part of the economic evaluations.

I suppose this may get sorted at the negotiation level but we probably won't know that for another nine months. We will also find out how much the DH and GPC think of the QOF Advisory committee's work.

Prevalence Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 21:17:00 +0000

I am grateful for an email pointing me to some work done to try to predict the prevalence of QOF related diseases. The prediction is based on the age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation and smoking status of a practice's population. Readers with long memories may remember something similar being done by the North East Health Observatory a few years ago. This new work, however, covers more disease areas and is rather easier to use as the predictions are now featured on NHS Comparators (that link only works on NHS computers, sorry)

The methodology is interesting as the "expected" prevalence is based on various household surveys rather than GP data. The national prevalences are all rather lower than the "expected" prevalences except for cancer. The high relative prevalence of cancer in the QOF data is likely due to the predictions being based on one year and QOF registers being based on several years.

It is possible to argue with the methods of determining prevalence. It is not entirely clear that it is desirable that medically recorded prevalence should be the same as some of these surveys. Data about pratice populations is generally limited to age and sex and so various assumptions and approximations have been used in the model with data from other sources. Whilst there is some validity in these objections they do not justify writing off this work. For the first time at an accessible national level there is an attempt to produce corrected prevalence figures for practices. Comparison of one practice with another is still not simple but it is a little simpler. It is only thing that has made me log on to NHS Comparators recently.

QOF upper thresholds

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 21:00:00 +0000

The Marmot report on health inequalities, published a couple of weeks ago, had a few things to say on the subject of the QOF. Somewhat unsurprisingly it suggested that the QOF is used to reduce inequalities. One of the ideas mentioned, although not an official suggestion, was removing the upper threshold on QOF targets. I have to admit some sympathy to this idea in principle although it would certainly add to my work as a GP and the benefits are not entirely clear cut.

There are, however, a number of practical problems which could make implementation hard.

The biggest problem is one of funding. Currently practices receive a certain amount for each patient that meets the criteria between the lower threshold (currently mostly 40%) and the upper threshold (anywhere from 50-90%). If we want to expand that top threshold up to 100% there are a couple of ways of doing this. First we can keep the number of points the same. This means that the incentive per patient falls but the total potential cost to the government remains the same. Where thresholds are at 90% the difference will be 15% - enough to make some unhappiness but probably not earth shattering.

For DM 23 (diabetics with HbA1c less than 7) each patient will be worth a sixth of what they were before.

The other option is to keep the payment per patient the same. This is a lot more costly for the government. DM23 would need 102 points allocated to it (it has 17 at the moment) to keep up the incentive.

None of this takes account of exception reporting. As thresholds have not risen in this way before. It seems very likely that exception reporting would rise, but by how much? Would it incentivise exception reporting more than achievement? Might it simply lead to more organised exception reporting systems to send out the three letters? Most practices already get quite well over thresholds without the incentive of extra points.

And would it really reduce inequality? Could it make it worse? In the first years of the new contract practices in deprived areas did rather worse than those in less deprived areas, however they later caught up. Two years ago when moving the thresholds was mooted before extended hours came in I did some of the maths. It seems effects on practices are likely to be marginal only, but we won't know until it is implemented.

So not an absolutely awful idea but a lot of work would be needed before implementation.

There is more reaction reported at GP magazine.

Site unavailability

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin Jamie) — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:59:00 +0000

I apologise for the unavailability of the main site. This is due to upgrade work by the hosting provider which is not going all that well! This blog moved to a different server a couple of days ago. Should be up again soon and we are promised better, faster stronger etc.